Why Year One Matters
Last Updated: December 28, 2026
The 2026-27 School Year Will Determine TEFA's Future
"Redeeming the time, because the days are evil." — Ephesians 5:16 (KJV)
The Stakes
The first year of TEFA isn't just a policy rollout. It's a referendum. If Year One succeeds, the program expands. If it fails, opponents will kill it.
This matters for 3.4-3.7 million Christian children in Texas. Right now, only 4-5% of them attend Christian schools.123 The rest are in public schools, charter schools, or homeschool. TEFA could change that. But only if it survives.
Church leaders who act now aren't just starting schools. They're shaping whether Christian education becomes accessible to millions of Texas families or remains a luxury for the few.
TEFA Must Be Refunded Every Two Years
Unlike public school funding, which is formula-driven and automatic, TEFA requires biennial appropriations.45 The Legislature must vote to continue and expand funding in:
- 2027 session (for 2028-29 biennium)
- 2029 session (for 2030-31 biennium)
- And so on
If Year One is perceived as a failure, opponents will defund the program or cap it permanently at $1 billion.
The 2027 session happens just months after the first TEFA students complete their inaugural year. Legislators will be asking: Did it work? Did families benefit? Did the market respond? Did innovation happen?
The answers to those questions will determine everything.
What Counts as "Success"
For TEFA to survive and expand, Abbott and Patrick need to demonstrate several things:
High enrollment numbers. They need to show strong family demand. Target: 80,000+ students using TEFA in Year One.6
Happy family testimonials. Parents praising newfound educational freedom. Photo ops of diverse families at Christian schools they "couldn't afford before."
New school creation. Evidence that supply is responding to demand. Headlines like: "50 New Christian Microschools Launch Across Texas" or "Churches Answer the Call: Faith Communities Open Schools."
Low controversy. No major scandals, no "voucher mills," no high-profile cases that embarrass the program.7
Opponents will be looking for the opposite. Low enrollment. Wealthy families gaming the system. Supply shortages leaving families with vouchers they can't use. Stories of discrimination or fraud.
The Supply Crisis Is Coming
Here's what most people don't understand: there aren't enough private schools to absorb the demand TEFA will create.
Current private school capacity in Texas: approximately 350,000-400,000 students.18 TEFA Year One appropriation: $1 billion, serving roughly 95,000 students at $10,474 each.910
That seems manageable until you look closer.
Geographic mismatch. Private schools are concentrated in major metros. Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio.1112 But demand will be statewide. Rural and suburban families who want Christian education often have few or no nearby options.
Admissions selectivity. Private schools choose which students to admit. Even with TEFA funding, schools can reject students based on academic ability, behavioral challenges, or disabilities they're not equipped to serve.1314
Financial gaps. TEFA provides $10,474, but many Christian schools charge more. Saint Mary's Hall: $18,848-$34,042. San Antonio Christian: $12,000-$15,850.15 Families still need to pay thousands out of pocket. Low-income families prioritized by TEFA often cannot afford this gap.
Capacity expansion is slow. Legislative fiscal analysis assumes private school capacity could increase by 10% per year.16 But TEFA is projected to grow from $1 billion to $5-7 billion by 2028-30, potentially serving 300,000-500,000 students.1718
The math doesn't work. Even aggressive expansion cannot create 300,000+ new private school seats in 3-4 years.
What Happens Without New Schools
If Year One launches with only existing private schools:
- Elite schools fill up fast (mostly wealthy families)
- Geographic deserts persist (rural families can't access schools)
- No visible supply-side innovation
- Many lottery winners can't actually use their vouchers
Opponents will claim:
- "Vouchers just subsidize the rich"
- "There's no real demand beyond wealthy families gaming the system"
- "The market isn't responding"
- "This is a failed experiment that should be defunded"
What Happens With Church-Based Innovation
But if Year One features 20-50 new church-based microschools launching statewide:
- Diverse geographic distribution (not just Dallas/Houston)
- Compelling founder stories (pastors, former public school teachers)
- Families from congregations enrolling (built-in community)
- Early testimonials about student transformation
Pro-TEFA forces can claim:
- "The market is working—churches are innovating"
- "This is empowering families and communities, not just subsidizing elites"
- "We need to expand funding to meet organic demand"
- "Texas is leading a national movement"
Church-based microschools are the perfect story. They fill supply gaps. They're affordable (TEFA-covered). They're geographically distributed (churches exist everywhere). They're culturally trusted (congregation relationships). They're innovative.
Why Texas Matters Nationally
Texas isn't the most Christian state. Alabama (89%), Mississippi (86%), Tennessee (83%) all rank higher.1920 But Texas is the most important state for the national school choice movement.
Scale. Texas has 30 million residents and 5.7 million school-age children.2122 TEFA will serve more students in Year One than entire ESA programs in most other states.
Influence. What happens in Texas shapes national Republican policy. Corey DeAngelis, the school choice evangelist, said explicitly: "We gotta get Texas... When Texas comes, the rest of the monopoly dominoes will start to fall all across the country."23
Test case. Texas represents a different challenge than small, homogeneous Southern states. 254 counties. Huge urban metros. Rural districts spanning hundreds of miles. 40% Hispanic population. If TEFA works in Texas, it proves school choice can scale.
Political stakes. If TEFA fails, anti-school choice advocates can campaign on "Abbott gave your tax dollars to rich private schools." If it succeeds, it cements a middle-class constituency invested in the program's survival.
Most of the most Christian states have already passed school choice: Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma.2425 They were easier wins. Texas is the test of whether school choice works at massive scale in a complex, diverse state.
If Texas Fails, the Movement Stalls
If the 2027 Texas Legislature refuses to expand or defunds TEFA, the national implications are severe:
Uncommitted states stop pursuing ESAs. Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Virginia look at Texas and say: "Even there it didn't work."
Existing programs face backlash. Critics in Arizona and Florida point to Texas as a warning.
Federal policy dies. Trump's federal ESA tax credit becomes politically toxic. States opt out rather than in.
Christian education expansion stalls. Without Texas leading, the supply-side crisis continues nationwide. Christian families remain trapped in public schools.
The Numbers: 3.4 Million Christian Kids
There are approximately 3.4-3.7 million Christian children in Texas.123
Only 150,000-180,000 are in Christian schools.826 That's 4-5%.
95-96% of Christian kids in Texas are NOT in Christian schools.
They're in public ISDs. Public charters. Homeschool. Non-religious private schools. Many of their parents would choose differently if they could afford it. TEFA makes it affordable.
But only if there are schools to choose.
Churches Hold the Key
Here's why church leaders are so critical:
Infrastructure exists. Churches have buildings that sit empty six days a week. Facilities already exist. They just need to be repurposed.
Community exists. Congregations represent built-in communities of families who trust each other. You don't have to build trust from scratch.
Mission alignment. Education as discipleship fits church DNA. This isn't a side project. It's central to the church's calling.
Geographic distribution. Churches exist everywhere in Texas, not just in wealthy urban neighborhoods. Rural areas have churches. Suburban areas have churches. This solves the geographic mismatch problem.
Affordability. Church-based microschools don't need to charge $25,000 tuition. If the church provides space at low or no cost, a microschool can operate at TEFA-covered rates.
The Timeline
Now through Fall 2026: Churches that partner with established platforms like Prenda can launch microschools that access TEFA funding immediately. Prenda already meets the two-year operation requirement, so new pods can enroll TEFA students in Year One.
Fall 2026: First TEFA students enroll. Year One begins.
Spring 2027: Early success stories emerge. Testimonials. Media coverage.
2027 Legislative Session: Legislators decide whether to expand, maintain, or defund TEFA.
Churches that act now become part of the Year One story. Churches that wait miss the window.
For Christ's Dominion
This isn't just policy. It's about whether the next generation of Texas children will be formed in truth or falsehood.
95% of Christian kids are currently being educated in secular systems. Systems that teach materialist ontology, deny divine providence in history, and treat sin as a medical condition rather than a spiritual reality.
TEFA opens a door. For the first time, Christian education becomes accessible to ordinary families, not just the wealthy.
But the door only stays open if Year One succeeds. And Year One only succeeds if there are schools for families to choose.
Church leaders who start microschools now aren't just providing an alternative education option. They're:
- Filling a critical supply gap
- Generating the success stories TEFA needs to survive politically
- Proving that Christian communities respond to opportunity with innovation
- Creating the infrastructure for 3.4 million Christian kids to potentially access Christian formation
The current Texas government is aligned with this mission. Abbott, Patrick, and the legislators who passed TEFA want to see churches step up. They need churches to step up.
The door is open. Will the church walk through it?
For practical guidance on launching a church-based microschool, see Starting a Church-Based Microschool.
For the history of how TEFA passed, see How Texas School Choice Happened.